The United States southern border remains one of the most politically charged topics in American life, but the actual situation in 2025 is more nuanced and less dramatic than either political extreme suggests. Here is what the data actually shows.
Border encounters — the CBP metric for migrants apprehended or processed at the southern border — peaked at 250,000 per month in December 2023 and have since declined to approximately 110,000 per month, following a series of executive actions and bilateral agreements with Mexico and Central American countries. The number is still historically high but represents a significant reduction.
The composition of border crossers has shifted. Unaccompanied minors, which peaked at 22,000 per month in 2021, have declined sharply. The majority of current encounters involve adults and families from Venezuela, Ecuador, Cuba, and Haiti — countries experiencing acute political or economic crises — rather than the Central American families that dominated earlier waves.
The economic dimension is often obscured in political debate. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the immigration wave of recent years will add $7 trillion to US GDP over the next decade and reduce Social Security's long-term funding gap by $0.9 trillion, as working-age immigrants contribute to payroll taxes that fund the retirement system.
